So far there have been even more surprise results than is normally the case even for Glorious Goodwood so I am treading sensibly (or carefully) again this afternoon after burning my fingers on Michelangelo on Day One, a serious pocket hurting result if ever I have seen one!
All bets today seem ultra risky to me (maybe I am just in that sort of mood), and dangers seem to lurk around every corner, but you cannot just ignore a meeting like Goodwood so here we go again! Two small, late in the day bets could at least limit any damages starting in the 4.20pm when I have heard positive vibes for the unraced Rashfa, a daughter of Cape Cross out of a Swain mare, despite the amazingly poor run of the John Dunlop yard. First things first, and I have to confess that my first ever interview was with Mr Dunlop for a local rag, and he is still to this day the most charming, helpful, and amicable man I have ever met (with Sir Mark Prescott probably next best), and thus I will not have a bad word uttered or typed! Facts speak for themselves unfortunately and the yard have only managed three winners all season so far, but you cannot become a “bad” trainer overnight and if anyone can turn it round then I am confident he can do the business. Some recent places imply that they may be on the verge of a comeback, and although he does not work his tow year olds together (whatever others tell you), she has been working well enough to suggest a big run here is a distinct possibility.
Although I will stick with a single point bet, I do feel Estimate is probably the better option of the two this afternoon if only I could second guess how a Sir Michael Stoute horse might run? With her three year old allowance and more stamina than most of her rivals (won last time out over two miles and this is only a mile and three quarters), but she led at the two furlong pole that day in similar grade, so that cannot be held against her. Two wins from two starts this year suggest she is going in the right direction and although you cannot be certain in this sort of company she is the most likely winner in my limited mind.
Sensible bets for Punters:
1pt Win ESTIMATE 3.45pm Goodwood @ 3.25 with Bet365 200£ Free bets!
Silly bet for Fun:
1pt Win RASHFA 4.20pm Goodwood @ 38 with Betfair 20£ in Free bets!
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