I rarely if ever write too far in advance but there is a serious gamble going on from close to the Richard Hannon yard with Cai Shen cut from 8/1 to 5/1 for the Lingfield Winter derby on Saturday. Whether any value remains is a question only you can answer (after all, it is your money?), but it seems fair to assume the four year old has been working well at home to see this sort of plunge, and a quick glance soon tells you the ten furlong trip is ideal, though personally I would be wary of his ability to handle the polytrack as he is yet to race on anything other than grass.
On to matters closer at hand and with the flat coming up fast I feel like focussing there and Wolverhampton for starters. Moataz has certainly been in decent form this season so far and he has won two of his last three races, as well as finishing second when outpaced over a mile. He has not looked as if he was stopping on either attempt at ten furlongs and the step up to a mile and a half is interesting in the handicap at 3.05pm where he attempts to shrug off a six pound winners’ penalty.
Tonight at Kempton I have heard that young Charlie Hills feels his string are well forward this season in which case they will see Safarjal as a bit of a sighter for future maidens when the daughter of Marju reappears over a mile tonight. She was as green as grass went sent off at odds of 33/1 on her debut when sixth behind the more experienced Firdaws (third in the Fillies Mile at Ascot next time out), but showed the benefit of that experience when runner up to 1000 Guineas entry Diala at Newmarket next time out which may well turn out to be no disgrace, and with the fourth winning since, the form may be better than is needed to win an all-weather maiden here.
Sensible bet for Punters
2pts Win MOATAZ 3.05pm Wolverhampton @ 2 with Bet365 200£ Free bets!
Silly bets for dreamers:
2pts Win SAFARJAL 6.30pm Kempton
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