Wednesday 1st February – A new service

From The Stables launches a new service today with the addition of regular race reviews from Mike Gorvin, who is Bryan Smart’s racing secretary.  Regular readers of our website know that Mike works tirelessly with Bryan to identify the right races for their horses, which helped the yard to break the 70 winners barrier for the first time in 2011.

Mike’s accounting qualification highlights his head for numbers and he will provide 10-15 reviews per month, where he thinks there is good value in backing a particular horse. I will look to feature the occasional selection from Mike in these pages. He makes his first selection today and below, in full, is his text supporting the decision to recommend backing Sannibel each-way in the Kempton 16:50 race.

“Cats Eyes looks likely to go off odds on but she will have to improve despite dropping back in trip. Her debut run was eye-catching but would not be good enough in itself to win this and her breeding suggests that she is more likely to be a 7-8f than a 5f filly. Whilst it is impossible to dismiss her chance, I wouldn’t want to be on her at odds on in a race where she could find herself outpaced.

“Backers of Chaud Lapin are relying on one piece of form that, to my mind, may not be entirely reliable. On his second run he was allowed the run of the race before being put in his place by a long odds on favourite. That is his only run that suggests that he is capable of winning this and, once again, he wouldn’t strike me as likely to be suited by 5f having been outpaced over 6f at Wolverhampton last time.

“I think that the value lies with SANNIBEL who is likely to be suited by the drop back to 5f and has previously posted form that would be good enough to go close in this. She ran well in her first two maidens, finishing second twice including being caught on the line over 5f at Wolverhampton by a horse now rated 71. She disappointed at Chepstow when seemingly unsuited by the track although there may have been a physical reason for the poor run as she had a 4 month break afterwards despite it only being her third run. She was beaten a long way on her reappearance 4 weeks ago but that didn’t look a bad race and she didn’t look to get the 7f trip even if she was fully ‘wound up’ that day.

“Unless the unraced Kiss My Heart is well backed during the day (currently 22/1) then I would not see any of the other runners being capable of being overly competitive in this. Available at around 5/1, SANNIBEL would be a very attractive each way ‘bet to nothing’ but anyone doing this should be aware that one non-runner amongst the lesser fancied horses would drastically reduce the value in the place element of the bet.”

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