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Saturday sees the 25th anniversary of the Victor Chandler £25 Free Bet! Chase at Ascot and with eight standing their ground at the five day stage, it looks a fascinating renewal. The exciting novice Al Ferof joins second season chasers Finian’s Rainbow and Wishful Thinking, in taking on the older guard. The first two named represent the leading yards of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson respectively, but I am looking at one of the established horses to shine.
The realistic options are Forpadydeplasterer, Gauvain and Somersby, although I think it would be unwise to dismiss Oiseau de Nuit who ran a blinder at the Kempton Christmas meeting only to be undone by a mistake at the last. However, I think the real value in the race is Henrietta Knight’s Somersby, the 9-y-o who just doesn’t seem to know how to run a bad race.
Somersby career form figures read 1/41333/1122/33253-1224, yes only out of the first three on three occasions and never having fallen in his career. Whilst I hope I am not tempting fate, those figures appear to make Somersby close to an each-way certainty on Saturday. Especially given that his two recent failures to make the frame, were in last years’ Champion Chase and in Kauto Star’s recent remarkable fifth King George over three miles. Saturday’s race over 17 furlongs will certainly suit this horse better than Kempton’s three miles and whilst Henrietta Knight confesses to not knowing his best trip, his run behind Master Minded in this race 12 months ago makes me believe this distance does suit.
Given the top two mile chasers Sizing Europe and Big Zeb are absent, Somersby has excellent prospects of placing and can hopefully can go one better on a course his trainer confirmed “he loves”. He should be backed each-way at 7.50 for the Ascot 15:10 race on Saturday, with the sponsor Victor Chandler, who offer a quarter the odds a place and a non-runner no bet clause.
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