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Three weeks ago a Graham Wylie owned and Paul Nicholls trained horse obliged for us at rewarding odds on a Saturday, and I think there is a great chance they can repeat the dose tomorrow. This time it is a much bigger race, the Argento Chase that they are looking to plunder, but they go into battle with a proven horse in Tidal Bay, who at his best is very useful.
Tidal Bay now an 11-y-o, was fourth in the Imperial Commander’s Gold Cup in 2009, then second to the same horse in the Betfair 20£ in Free bets! Chase at Haydock in 2010 and was a very creditable sixth in last years’ Gold Cup. That form behind Long Run is good enough to see him take a hand, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the maestro that is Nicholls has got some improvement from the ex-Howard Johnson horse. The conditions for this Grade 2 event also favour the Nicholls horse as he gets weight from his main rivals. Although he has been a little quirky and sometimes gets behind in his races, I’m hopeful with Ruby Walsh on board that won’t happen tomorrow. The 9.00 on offer currently with Bet365 200£ Free bets! looks excellent value to complete a hat-trick in this race for the Champion trainer.
Later in the day Big Bucks should extend his amazing sequence over hurdles in the Cleeve Hurdle for the Nicholls and Walsh team. I was hoping one of the bookies might have offered 41.00 plus on Cross Kennon, which for me would make it worth a small each-way bet on the Jeannie Candlish trained horse. Cross Kennon was fourth in the World Hurdle behind Big Bucks but more significantly only half a length behind Irish trained Mourad, who is as short as 5.50 for tomorrow’s race. Perhaps the odds will lengthen overnight?!
At Doncaster, the Alan King Hold On Julio is a worthy favourite for the SkyBet 10£ in Free bets! Chase, after winning comfortably at Sandown recently. He may well win again on route to the Festival, but I think it could be worth a small wager on Nicky Henderson’s Shakalakaboomboom to lower his colours. The Henderson trained 8-y-o seems to have become much more consistent on his last two runs at Punchestown in May and then his reapperance at Cheltenham last month. To me it seems the key is the distance of these races, previoulsy the horse had been running around two and a half miles, but those last two races were over three miles plus. He is now unbeaten in three races at three miles and above and I think he is worth supporting at 9.00, which is generally available.
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