How to Bet on horse racing – What to look for when picking a winner!

The initial ‘How the Bet’ horse racing guides looked at why you should bet on horse racing and explained the main types of bets that you could make.  The next in the series looks at the factors to consider when looking to pick a winner.  This guide will provide an overview of the main factors, focusing specifically on horse form.  Whilst other elements are mentioned here, there will be further guides going into more detail over the coming weeks and months.

The most important single factor to consider when backing a horse is the form of the horse in comparison to those it is racing against.  It is an obvious statement although there are many different aspects to the form of a horse.

Horse Form

• How has the horse been running recently?  The form figures in a racecard will give an indication of this, these figures might read 306121.  Each figure represent where the horse finished in a race, the last figure ’1′ in this case relates to his latest run and a win!  The figures alone give an indication of form, although to really understand the form you will need to look at the detail behind the figure.  Also look to see if there is a reason for a particularly bad run, this could be because of the going for example.
• Has the horse been running against other horses that are also in the race now being assessed.  Often you can find direct form lines between horses in the same race.  Has the horse we are considering beaten some of the competition before, what were the conditions of that race?
• How has the horse performed over the distance it will be running?  Has it run over this distance before and does it have good form over this ‘trip’.  A small change in the distance of a race can have a massive influence on the chance of a horse being successful.  Many horses are specialist at a very specific distance, for example a horse may run over 7 furlongs and a mile (8 furlongs) but only ever wins over 7.
• The course where the race is run can also be important.  Some horses are known as course specialists and perform really well at a specific course.  A recently retired jumper Cool Roxy being a great example, he raced 77 times winning only one race from 51 attempts away from Fakenham, but recording 11 wins from 26 attempts at the Norfolk track.  Horses can also like certain types of track, maybe right handed as opposed to left or very level tracks as opposed to undulating courses.
• The going, that is the state of the ground/turf that the race will be run on is also a factor.  Extreme stats as above are repeated for some horses for the type of going, that is a horse may favour give in the ground and only performs when the ground is soft or heavy.  Roger Charlton’s sprinter Bated Breath has won five races out of eight on good or faster ground (inclduing two seconds in Group 1 races) whilst having a record of no wins from his other five races where soft has appeared in the going.
• The class of race and weight carried by a horse are other key factors, which relate to form.  This ia a complex area, but basically refers to the grade of race a horse is running in and the horses handicap mark.  The best races (Grade/Group 1) are raced off level weights, with the only allowances being for age and the sex of the horse.  Whilst handicap weights are allocated by an official handicap system, which attempts to give all horses in a race an equal chance of success.  A more detailed review of this area will be written at a later date.
• One factor that should not be ignored is the actual fitness of a horse on the day of the race.  If a horse has been running regularly it should be fit, but most regular backers of horses will want to assess the fitness of a horse on the day by viewing it in the parade ring. From The Stables is in the process of producing some short videos on how to determine a horses’ fitness and a link will appear here when they are available.
• The final item on horse form is headgear.  It will often be pointed out that a horse is running in first time blinkers, which can sometimes bring about a significant improvement in the form of a horse.  Certain horses will need headgear to produce there best form, this could by blinkers, visor, cheekpieces or perhaps might be a tongue-tie which can help resolve breathing problems.

The following is a list of other important considerations when assessing the chances of a horse in the race:

• Trainer form, in my opinion second only to the actual form/ability of the horse in deciding whether to back a horse or not.
• Jockey form, this will play a part on the confidence the rider may give to a horse and is not a factor to underestimate.
• Horse breeding, particularly relevant in young and inexperienced horses, where there is not a lot of actual race form to work on.  What is the breeding of the horse? Is the stallion successful over a particular distance? How did the female side of the breeding perform on a certain type of going? All factors that can be assessed to provide information on a horses’ chance in a particular race.
• The draw, this relates to the stall or gate number that a horse will start a flat race from.  On certain couses there can be a real draw bias and the chances a horse has of winning a race can be changed significantly based on whether they have a high or a low draw.  Statistics are available and should be consulted particularly in big sprint handicaps.
• Pace of the race will also play a part in determine the chance a particular horse may have in the race.  Trying to determine whether there will be pace in a race (slowly run races will alter which horse could run well) and again in big handicaps where that pace is can be major factors in the outcome of a race.

Hopefully this initial guide has given you a feel for what to look for when selecting a horse to back.  Do not be put off by the number of things that can impact a race, rather view them as an opportunity to find real value in the horses that you back.

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