Earlier this week I explained the concept of back to lay and by way of example made three bets which I was hoping to lay off ahead of the events’ conclusion. Three days later two of those bets can successfully be layed, to secure a profit whatever the outcome.
The Welsh rugby team turned in a fantastic performance in New Zealand to progress to the semi-final of the World Cup. Following that win, you can now lay Wales at 8.80, locking in a profit whether Wales win or lose the World Cup!
The details of how this can be done can be seen if we look at the specifics of the bets. Earlier this week we made a bet on Wales to win the World Cup at 19.00, for a bet of £100, a Welsh win in the competition would result in a profit of £1,800. Now on the exchanges Wales can be layed at just 8.80 (7.8/1) so if we lay Wales for £200, a profit will be made whatever the outcome. The details of the two outcomes are as follows:
Wales win the World Cup – collect £1800 on the win bet but lose £1,560 on the layed bet – profit would be £240
Wales lose the World Cup – Lose £100 on the win bet but win £200 on the layed bet – profit would be £100 (less exchange commission).
Note that depending on your view of the likely outcome of the World Cup, you could lay Wales to a lesser amount if you thought that Wales were still good value to win the tournament or progress to the final with another win next weekend. This tactic may allow more profit to be secured, although obviously carries further risk.
Of the two bets placed in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket today, one can be successfully layed to allow a small profit or a free bet (Sentry Duty) but the other horse (Never Can Tell) cannot be layed to a profit, mainly due to the horse not receiving a favourable draw. In this case the latter bet will be left and we will hope for a good run from the Jamie Osborne trained and Frankie Dettori ridden horse. The details of the bets on Sentry Duty highlight we now have a ‘free’ bet on that horse in this afternoon’s race.
£100 pound win on Sentry Duty at 21.00 would give a profit of £2,000 if the horse wins.
£100 pound layed bet on Sentry Duty this morning at 14.5 (13.5/1) would lose £1,350 if the horse wins, but covers the initial bet if the horse loses. Hence a win for Sentry Duty secures a profit of £650, whilst a defeat for the horse would not cost a penny or a cent!
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