It is obvious that the larger the outsider, you are able to find as a winner of the upcoming Wimbledon tournament, the higher the odds you get and thereby also bigger winnings.
But there seems to be good reasons to narrow the search for a winner down to the field of the top four in the world.
One reason is that today’s best four players in the men’s rankings, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray simply seem a class above the rest of the field at the moment.
It was these four who reached the semifinals at the French Open, and none of them are worse on grass. On the contrary when it comes to Murray and Federer.
That they are the best is also reflected in the fact that they have shared the past several Grand Slams between them. And that’s only three of them, since Andy Murray has never won a Slam. But the last six winners of the Australian Open have been called either Nadal, Federer or Djokovic.
The last seven winners of the French Open have been called either Nadal or Federer. The last eight winners of Wimbledon equally, and the two giants have also taken six of the last seven U.S. Open titles.
nly Juan Martin Del Potro has broken the streak, and he is not strong enough at present on grass to take a Wimbledon trophy.
Another reason is found in the more statistical department, which doesn’t make it less useful though. 13 of the last 14 Wimbledon tournaments have been won by a player from the top four.
Only Goran Ivanisevic has been able to break this streak, when in 2001 he swept away all opponents as useeded. This kind of miracle is of course difficult to guard yourself against, but I find it very hard to see who could pull off a feat like that this year, so I’ll stick to the top four.
Should we throw money after all four? It is actually possible with the available odds to bet all four and get out with profits. But of course you get more out of it, the more you can narrow your search down, but who should we look away from?
Andy Murray still has his first Grand Slam title waiting, but now he has been in three finals, losing each very clearly which seem to have given him a bit more humble approach to his tennis.
He has had an amazingly good clay court season, which must have given him enormous confidence, and he won the grass tournament in Queens, during which he among other wins totally nailed Andy Roddick. Since he also has the best winning odds of the four, he stays in our field.
Roger Federer reached somewhat surprisingly the final of the French Open, and can he take some of his game from Paris to London, he will be awesome.
He is the world’s best grass player, and chasing Pete Sampras’ seven titles. He might argue that this does not mean anything, but he is an ambitious man who still loves to win. He gets the chance to rule once again.
Novak Djokovic was up until the French Open the undisputed best player of the season. He has swept all opposition aside and can smell Rafael Nadal’s first place on the rankings.
Djokovic has stated that the biggest goal of the season is to win Wimbledon. If that statement has some truth to it, he can be scary to deal with, so he
also gets a stake from us.
That leaves us with Rafael Nadal. He has just won the French Open, and is a defending champion from 2010 when he won the title in convincing style against Tomas Berdych.
However he had to work exceptionally hard for his title in Paris, where he simply wasn’t on top of his game, which he also stated himself along the way. That he won anyway speaks volumes about his skills and psyche, but the victory may have drained the mental drawer a little bit too much to also win Wimbledon against a pack of so fierce opponents.
Andy Murray gave the Spaniard extremely tough battles a couple of times on clay, and is an even better grass player, while Nadal couldn’t handle Djokovic in their previous meetings this year on any surface.
Therefore, I will leave Nadal for now and focus my stakes on the three other players.