Football: Excellent value on Arsenal vs Partizan

Tonight’s match up between Arsenal and Partizan Belgrade throws up some excellent value.

Arsenal need to win to go through and to many that is reason enough to back them. Interestingly, quite a lot of statistical analysis has been carried out on this “need to win” strategy and it has been found to be, in the most part, twaddle.

Basically, stats show that if a team needs to win, it doesn’t really impact the chances of them doing so. This is of course different to when two teams playing each other mustn’t lose, as we see happen in Italy when the shortest price in the 12X is the draw!

So are Arsenal too short a price? Have the mugs got into them too much? Not really in my opinion. The price is just too short for casual interest, unless you’re going to stick them in an accumulator.

However, bookies will tell you they’ll lay short priced jollies in acca’s until the cows come home!

So where is the value?

How about this:

Partizan aren’t a great side. They’ve lost all 5 games so far, scoring just one goal and conceding 10.

There’s nothing to suggest an upsets on the cards tonight, away at the top of the Premier League.

The spread firms believe Arsenal win by about 3 goals tonight. I’m inclined to agree. So I pondered, who’s in form at the moment and Samir Nasri’s name came to mind.

You can sell the time he scores his first goal tonight at 69 with Extrabet. He’s score 7 times in the last 13

matches, with the 1^st goals being scored in the 41^st, 20^th, 9^th, 45^th and 14^th minutes.